Despite the shortened trading week due to the July 4 holiday, markets digested numerous key economic indicators. On Tuesday, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 49.0, signaling contraction in the manufacturing sector. The decline was driven by weakening new orders and continued softness in export demand, reflecting global economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of elevated interest rates.
Last week, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, maintaining the federal funds target range at 5.25%–5.50%. While the decision was widely anticipated, attention turned to Fed Chair Powell’s comments and the updated Summary of Economic Projections, which signaled a cautious stance on inflation and a slower path to rate cuts than previously expected. On the housing front, both Building Permits and Housing Starts for May came in lower than anticipated, offering insights into low builder sentiment amid elevated mortgage rates. At only 1.393 million for Building Permits and -9.8% for Housing Starts, economists will be watching to see if this will be a new trend. Meanwhile, as a key driver of gross domestic product (GDP), Core Retail Sales came in at -0.3%, providing a read of possible fatigue in consumer strength and spending behavior.